Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 2.142841 2.258988 2.383988 2.529646 2.696226 2.882723 3.110190
2025-06-01 2.000858 2.146929 2.310661 2.510687 2.752790 3.042641 3.426775
2025-06-08 1.899291 2.062733 2.251211 2.489523 2.790741 3.171548 3.714382
2025-06-15 1.840922 2.020639 2.233187 2.510576 2.876071 3.364326 4.117918
2025-06-22 1.746291 1.927586 2.144931 2.433566 2.822974 3.360457 4.232744
2025-06-29 1.697765 1.886856 2.117345 2.430162 2.865163 3.492211 4.584355
2025-07-06 1.634654 1.824326 2.057906 2.379281 2.834970 3.511110 4.748949
2025-07-13 1.613388 1.812536 2.061826 2.412505 2.926113 3.727187 5.335095
2025-07-20 1.606014 1.817385 2.086816 2.475484 3.066775 4.047711 6.281238
2025-07-27 1.577006 1.792692 2.070791 2.478530 3.114710 4.216600 6.983671
2025-08-03 1.550602 1.770062 2.056048 2.481799 3.162438 4.393360 7.837629
2025-08-10 1.503608 1.718605 1.999685 2.420111 3.097383 4.339371 7.946860
2025-08-17 1.474691 1.691342 1.977081 2.410006 3.122259 4.480857 8.901836
2025-08-24 1.446414 1.663823 1.952749 2.395463 3.137654 4.605897 9.979146
2025-08-31 1.419136 1.636659 1.927670 2.378049 3.145990 4.717538 11.219896
2025-09-07 1.405545 1.627350 1.927123 2.398275 3.223399 5.008791 14.409272
2025-09-14 1.365451 1.580835 1.871885 2.329218 3.129810 4.860581 13.934114
2025-09-21 1.347495 1.564095 1.858775 2.326643 3.160860 5.037963 17.258668
2025-09-28 1.317546 1.530148 1.819792 2.280659 3.105561 4.977715 17.834748
2025-10-05 1.311476 1.528842 1.827917 2.311169 3.200627 5.353507 30.638059
2025-10-12 1.313098 1.538108 1.851662 2.368612 3.356606 5.982254 NaN
2025-10-19 1.299747 1.526005 1.843250 2.371498 3.400494 6.276974 NaN
2025-10-26 1.287062 1.514480 1.835252 2.374548 3.445051 6.599006 NaN